Election Results Update

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The Numbers

The 2108 midterm elections were held four weeks ago today, but the votes are still being tabulated (due to high rate of vote-by-mail ballots and some number of provisional ballots). And while the ultimate outcome in the 4th won’t change, Jessica Morse’s showing continues to impress, as do the turnout figures. As of yesterday (Dec.3), the 4 th CD totals were:

Tom McClintock (R): 181,182 (54.2%)

Jessica Morse (D): 153,309 (45.8%)

Recall that, in 2016, McClintock’s margin of victory was 25.4% (62.7% to 37.3%), whereas his margin this year was only 8.4%. That is a difference—or “swing” of 17 percentage points, and therefore one of the largest swings from “red” to “blue” in the country!

Jessica ran well ahead of the entire Democratic ticket across the district, in some instances by 8 points or more

And voter turnout was nothing short of amazing! So far (and with counting still going on), total votes cast were 334,491, or 72.7% of those registered to vote. In the last midterm (2014), turnout was only 52%.

Have no doubt, all that canvassing, phone banking, post cards, texting, all those parties and the hours of hard work clearly paid off!

Post-Election Analysis

Believing that it was important to understand what happened and why, Sierra Forward commissioned a post-election survey of people who actually voted in the 4 th CD this year. Conducted between November 7 and November 19, the survey revealed some important data, information that will help guide our efforts over the next two years, and which should help whoever chooses to run in the 4 th CD in 2020.

Among the key findings:

* Jessica won a majority of women, but lost by a larger margin among men;

* Among age cohorts, Jessica carried millennials handily, but lost by increasing margins among older groups;

* Jessica won 8 out of 10 Democrats, and she won a majority of No Party Preference voters (recall that our earlier research showed that, in 2016, McClintock carried a third or more of Democrats and a majority of NPPs);

* Three fourths of voters made up their minds a month or more before the election;

* Input from friends, neighbors, colleagues, etc., via conversations and/or social media, was critically important in voters’ decisions as to whom to vote for.

The Future

Sierra Forward is here to stay. Stay tuned for our plans to continue to work for positive change in the 4 th CD and beyond. Your continued interest and support is essential to those plans. Thank you!!!